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180418 PostNL | Don't wait.......and C!

180418 PostNL | Don't wait.......and C!

No. pages 39
Description

Merely one year after PostNL raised its strategic ambitions for 2020, the company had to cut these again by about 25%. 

 
The main reasons for this again originate from its MailNL division. We still believe that this division holds the key for the future: a solution here can solve most of PostNL’s  problems. 
 
This solution may be just around the corner now that Sandd has openly declared to be prepared to consider a consolidation of the last mile for mail as well. 
 
PostNL hopes that the current consultation on the future of the mail market will provide a good basis to gather sufficient support for a consolidation. However, with so many different parties participating, the outcome of this process is uncertain and could very well be a soft compromise. Any solution other than a consolidation could make things even worse in our view. 
 
We would therefore welcome any initiatives by PostNL to take more control over its own destiny. The benefits of that could be significant. For the company this would mean that it can focus on  taking the next steps in Parcels and International. 
 
For investors it could bring the long expected re-rating, because PostNL’s current valuation reflects barely more than the value of its Parcels division alone. 

 

Content

Summary and Conclusions

1. Unpleasant surprise

2. What went wrong?
2.1. Another eventful year
2.2. Regulation: fails to provide more clarity
2.2.1. SMP regime
2.2.2. Labour costs
2.3. Costs savings: is raising the bar still realistic?
2.4. Parcels: strong top-line growth but how about margins?
2.5. International: still struggling

3. Confidence and strategy
3.1 Management remains confident
3.2 Mail market consultation
3.3 Confidence in....
3.4 ....or as a strategy?

4. Mail consolidation: a potential game changer
4.1 Consolidation in mail should be top-priority
4.2 Would consolidation be a realistic scenario?

5 No alternatives
5.1 A monopoly will be inevitable anyhow; so why destroy more value?
5.2 Time is running out
5.3 Parcels is a trophy asset
5.4 Time for action

6 Summary and Conclusions

Created Date: Wednesday April 18, 2018 11:00:59
Last Updated Date: Wednesday April 18, 2018 11:00:59
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