080901 AkzoNobel - wrap-up one-on-one August 2008 080901 AkzoNobel - wrap-up one-on-one August 2008

Wrap-up one-on-one August 2008.

140707 Akzo Nobel | Deco Europe: about an unfinished symphony and a prelude 140707 Akzo Nobel | Deco Europe: about an unfinished symphony and a prelude

No. pages 65

PPG’s large war chest has enabled the company to put its international expansion into a higher gear, as was illustrated by its intended takeover of Mexican peer Comex and some smaller bolt-on deals in the US. This will force its main US rival Sherwin Williams to re-assess its strategy. Yet, this may also apply to Deco players in other geographical areas, for PPG’s acquisition hunger does not seem to have eased. Especially in Europe, where there are still a lot of blank spots in terms of its local presence. Although Akzo Nobel is the largest player in the European Deco market at this stage, the same applies to them too. Both companies have the ambition to grow volumes here and to position themselves to benefit from up-trading clients. This requires a stronger presence for both in Central and Eastern Europe, where Finnish Tikkurila holds strong local positions. Akzo Nobel’s near term strategy is to improve the returns from its existing portfolio; i.e., no large acquisitions. However, if PPG were to buy Tikkurila, it could adversely affect Akzo Nobel’s future growth and margin prospects in Deco Europe. In this study we outline and compare what alternatives the company has. Our conclusion: since Deco is and probably will continue to underperform the other two divisions in terms of ROI and ROS, this may be a good time to rethink its presence in this sector.


  • Summary and Conclusions

    All Eyes on Europe
    o Akzo Nobel in brief
    o Medium term strategy: focus on cost reductions and organic growth
    o Fixing Europe
    o A pragmatic plan
    o Akzo Nobel’s problems are not unique

    The Global Paints and Coatings Market
    o Coatings and Paints: a USD 100bn+ market
    o The European market
    o Market leadership: a game of words and definitions
    o Market leadership: why is it so important? 1
    o PPG is not the only player with an appetite for Europe

    Other Coatings and Paints Players in Europe
    o Potentially interesting buying candidates not wide-spread
    o Tikkurila and Sniezka
    o Matéris Paints
    o Hempel
    o Chemolak
    o Titan
    o Jotun
    o Others

    Exploring the Alternatives
    o A brief recap
    o No real bargains
    o Scenario 1: Jotun
    o Scenario 2: Sniezka
    o Scenario 3: Tikkurila
    o PPG as the most likely initiator
    o Where would this leave Akzo Nobel?

    Doing the Math
    o Introduction
    o Scenario 1: Sticking to the organic growth strategy for Deco Europe
    o Scenario 2: Akzo Nobel decides to act on Tikkurila

    What Could Be the Alternative(s)?
    o To boldly go where…..Akzo Nobel has gone before
    o Assessing the potential impact
    o But there is more

    Summary and Conclusions

151019 AkzoNobel | It's all about top-line growth 151019 AkzoNobel | It's all about top-line growth




No. pages


AkzoNobel will present its new medium term strategy and targets at its CMD on October 27th. The focus will probably shift from costs savings to an acceleration of top-line growth. This will take time to realise and trying to fill this gap by means of relatively small bolt-on acquisitions will not be enough in our view. After all, sluggish top-line growth has not been a thing of the recent past. We therefore advocate more drastic, transformational steps, like e.g., selling one of its three divisions, preferably Deco.



  • Summary and Conclusions

  • Kicking off where we left last year

  • The window is still wide open

  • Profitability now more in line with peers

  • Top-line growth remains a concern though

  • Emerging markets: more challenges ahead?

  • Similar patterns in other traditional growth markets

  • Evolution instead of revolution?

  • Deco will continue to weigh upon the company's overall performance

  • What could be the alternatives?

  • Where to go from here?

  • Summary and Conclusions



170331 AkzoNobel | the 'devil' is not as black as he is painted 170331 AkzoNobel | the 'devil' is not as black as he is painted

No. pages 84
Description This report provides a deep-dive into AkzoNobel's coatings and paints business, which serves as the basis for an assessment of the company's potential value on a stand-alone basis. The outcome of the various alternatives can then be compared with the proposal PPG has put on the table recently and which may not be its final offer. As the title of this report suggests: the 'devil' (i.e. PPG) is not as black as he is painted.

Summary and Conclusions    

1.    Introduction    

2.    Looking Back: the Big Disconnect    
2.1.    AkzoNobel's strategic progress..    
2.2.    Top line growth remains a challenge    
2.3.    ...although this partly reflects the lower raw materials costs    
2.4.    Not the only gap to worry about    
2.5.    Conclusion: the strategy has not really filled the gaps

3.    Coatings and Paints Markets    
3.1.    A more than USD 120bn market globally    
3.2.    A fragmented market place    
3.3.    ....in which AkzoNobel has lost its #1 global position    
3.4.    ...and more    
3.5.    Time to grow its top line again    

4.    Architectural Paints Globally    

5.    Architectural Paints Europe     
5.1.    Europe: a fragmented market place    
5.2.    The competitive landscape    
5.3.    A lot of overlap between PPG and AkzoNobel    
5.4.    But what could be the alternatives?    
5.5.    Conclusion: limited room for larger acquisitions in Europe    

6.    Architectural Paints Americas     
6.1.    USA & Canada    
6.2.    Central America    
6.3.    South America    
6.4.    Conclusion: large parts of the Americas not covered at all    

7.    Architectural Paints AsiaPacific     
7.1.    Largest geographic market with the highest growth potential    
7.2.    AkzoNobel's presence by region    
7.3.    China and North Asia    
7.4.    Southeast Asia and Pacific    
7.5.    India and South Asia    
7.6.    Conclusion: good growth, yet increased competition ahead    

8.    Performance Coatings     
8.1.    Introduction    
8.2.    Proceeds Specialty Chemicals fuel for expansion in coatings?    
8.3.    A takeover of Axalta?    
8.4.    What could a combination with PPG bring to the table?    
8.5.    Conclusion: consolidation; also in Performance Coatings

9.    Where does this leave us?     
9.1.    Something had to change    
9.2.    Scenario 1: Fair Value AkzoNobel stand-alone    
9.2.1.    Fair Value Decorative Paints    
9.2.2.    Fair Value Performance Coatings    
9.2.3.    Fair Value Specialty Chemicals and 'Other'    
9.3.    Scenario 2: Fair Value AkzoNobel buys Axalta    
9.4.    Scenario 3: Cash returns and small to mid-sized acquisitions    
9.5.    Scenario 4: Another major costs savings program    
9.6.    Other stand alone scenarios hard to find    
9.7.    What could AkzoNobel really be worth for PPG?    

10.    Summary and Conclusions    

Most important other coatings players in Europe

1.    Tikkurila Oyj     
2.    Sniezka     
3.    Jotun     
4.    Other players   






171031 AkzoNobel | the Axalta escape? 171031 AkzoNobel | the Axalta escape?

No. pages 12

In our in-depth report of March of this year (AkzoNobel | the 'devil' may not be as black as he is painted) we already looked at the route AkzoNobel now seems to have opted for: a deal with Axalta.

In this report we will review our thoughts on Axalta, inform what we believe to be the strength of such a deal but also the weakness. Furthermore we discuss how Axalta fits within AkzoNobel's updated strategy.

We will also focus on the company's shareholders. In the report we have reviewed PPG's position as well.

Lastly we will draw our conclusions.


Summary and Conclusions
Constructive dialogue with Axalta on merger
Axalta: a name that has popped up before
Global market leadership in Refinishes
Entry into cyclical OEM segment would mark break with the past
Growth not abundant
First deviation from the updated strategy?
Axalta is not a small bolt-on acquisition
How about value creation?
All the characteristics of a defensive move
Shareholders not be powerless
Relationship with shareholders potential weak spot
New opportunity for PPG?

171107 AkzoNobel | 25 questions but how many answers? 171107 AkzoNobel | 25 questions but how many answers?

No. pages 6

If the next EGM wasn't important enough already, it certainly will be after an open letter by VEB to both boards of AkzoNobel containing 25 questions. The deadline to answer this letter has been set for 15 November. For investors voting by proxy, the deadline for submitting their votes is normally some 7 days before the shareholders' meeting; i.e., around 23 November. This will enable them to factor in AkzoNobel's answers when wirging their voting decisions.


Summary and Conclusions
Open letter by Dutch Association of Shareholders
The merger talks with Axalta
Financial targets
Supervisory board
Specialty Chemicals
Next EGM may become even more important

190710 AkzoNobel | BASF warning: a red flag? 190710 AkzoNobel | BASF warning: a red flag?


No. pages 10




On Monday 8 July 2019, BASF issued a profit warning for the full year, in which it particularly referred to weak Industrial Production and a slump in Car Manufacturing; two sectors in which the major producers of coatings and paints are active too.

AkzoNobel's 15/20 targets are based upon a CAGR of 2% in revenue up to and including 2020. Last year, the company recorded -/-4% revenue growth and the 1.7% and 2.8% top-line growth we expect for 19FY and 20FY respectively would be insufficient to deliver just that. Hence, the delivery will increasingly depend on the development of the company's gross margin and delivery on OPEX reduction.

In this update, we will assess AkzoNobel's ability to deliver upon the 15 by 20 targets and explore whether our investment case is still intact.








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